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Estimating the Magnitude of the Poor Households in Metro Manila Using the Poisson Regression Model

Year: 2022       Vol.: 71       No.: 2      

Authors: Bernadette B. Balamban, Anna Jean C. Pascasio, Driesch Lucien R. Cortel and Maxine R. Ridulme


In the Official Poverty Statistics, Metro Manila, also known as the National Capital Region (NCR), is one of the areas that belong to the least poor cluster – a cluster that has relatively low poverty incidences. The Philippine Statistics Authority released the 2018 Municipal and City Level Poverty Estimates using the Elbers, Lajouw, and Lanjouw (ELL) methodology. The 2018 Small Area Estimates (SAE) of Poverty also released estimates for the 14 sub-areas in Metro Manila, ranging from 1.5 percent to 6.5 percent. The city-level poverty estimates were released as official statistics using direct estimation technique. Given the relatively low poverty incidences of the region, this paper aims to estimate the 2018 poverty incidence for the legislative districts in NCR, including the 14 sub-areas of the City of Manila, using the Poisson regression methodology and to compare with the results of the ELL methodology. Data sources include the 2015 Census of Population, and the merged 2018 Family Income and Expenditure Survey and January 2019 round of the Labor Force Survey. A total of 5 significant indicators were included in the final model. Results show that the Poisson model produced more reliable estimates for NCR than the ELL methodology. These SAE techniques allow for generating more granular poverty statistics useful for targeting poor beneficiaries. Furthermore, information may provide an opportunity for the LGU to act swiftly and provide appropriate subsidies for areas within Metro Manila.

Keywords: poverty statistics, small area estimation, survey and census data, time invariance

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